Boeing's World Cargo Forecast

The ACI-NA Air Cargo Committee held its first 2011 webinar on Feb. 3. The monthly webinars are scheduled for the first Thursday of every month.

Russell Tom, Regional Director from The Boeing Company gave a presentation on the 2010-2011 World Air Cargo Forecast. The presentation focused on the current state of the world air cargo market, cargo outlook and long-term freighter fleet forecast. Brief summary highlights:

  • World air cargo traffic continues recovering after high fuel prices and the world economic slowdown.
  • World air cargo traffic has been averaging 6.1% per year since 1970.
  • In 2009, world air cargo traffic declined 11.3%, after declining 1.8% in 2008 and growing 3.3% in 2007. The 2008–2009 period marked the first time that air cargo traffic has contracted in two consecutive years.
  • World air cargo traffic will triple over the next 20 years, compared to 2009 levels, averaging 5.9% annual growth and this will be led by Asia cargo markets.
  • Express carriers continue to dominate the U.S. domestic air cargo market.
  • Canada & U.S. domestic market will grow 2.9% per year through to 2029.
  • U.S. and Canada transborder air cargo traffic is forecasted to grow 5.8% per year through to 2029.
  • Over the next 20 years, the number of airplanes in the freighter fleet is forecast to expand by more than two-thirds, with North America leading the way in total deliveries and larger freighters in Asia.

In addition, Christopher Bidwell, Vice President of Security and Facilitation from ACI-NA provided a cargo security update. In mid-January, TSA issued a proposed change to carriers’ security programs to move the date for 100% screening of international inbound cargo to Dec.31 of this year. The carriers are currently drafting comments, which must be submitted to TSA by Feb.24. Bidwell said that one of the things that was interesting when talking with carriers and TSA, is that the carriers are further along in getting to 100% screening of inbound international cargo on passenger carriers then TSA thought. However, there will be some significant challenges for carriers in meeting the new deadline because the mandate for screening international inbound cargo is the same as for domestic originating cargo, in that it has to be screened at piece level, using the approved technology. And, TSA since has yet to approve the application of host country security programs under which aircraft operators could leverage programs – like the TSA Certified Cargo Screening Program – which drives screening further up the supply chain, a greater amount of unscreened cargo may arrive at airports.

Contact ACI-NA’s Nelson Lam for more information.