The FAA has again scaled back its prediction on the future growth of air travel over the next 20 years. In its 35th annual forecast released today, the FAA predicts that system-wide U.S. passenger air traffic will grow at an annual rate of 2.6 percent.
A year ago, it predicted that the annual growth rate would be 3.8 percent.
The FAA is now projecting that the annual U.S. passenger volume will hit the 1 billion mark in 2023. A year ago, that mark was projected to be reached by 2021. In the 2008 forecast, which was prepared before the spike in fuel prices, the 1 billion mark was projected to be reached by 2016.
This year’s forecast looks out to 2030 with a projection that 1.21 billion will be traveling U.S. airports at that time.
To put this potential congestion into perspective, the FAA calculates that 704 million flew in the U.S. last year.
See also Greg Principato’s blog on the forecast.
The FAA prepares the forecast in part so it can plan its workforce and facilities to meet the demands of growing traveling public. In its forecast book, the agency does not make an assessment of the airports preparation to meet these demands.
One element of intelligence within the forecast for airport planners is the projections of just who will be flying and the type of aircraft that will be used. The bottom line, the FAA projects that regional carriers will continue to fly an ever-increasing percentage of the U.S. passenger load and all of their new planes will be in the 70-90 seat category. Over the next 20 years, the forecast anticipates that all 50-set regional jets will be pulled from the fleet.
The FAA projects that the mainline carriers’ enplanements will decrease by 0.9 percent this year. This is a marked improvement over the past year when enplanements were projected to drop 9.5 percent in 2009. Over the next 20 years, mainline carriers (both network and low-cost) are projected to grow at an annual rate of 2.4 percent.
After a one-year decline in 2009, regional carriers are projected to continue on their growth curve. The FAA predicts the regional passenger enplanements will grow 4.6 percent this year and at an annual rate of 2.9 percent over the next 20 years.
The FAA is projecting that mainline aircraft will increase from 3,666 in 2009 to 5,342 in 2030. In the same timeframe, the FAA projects that the regional jet fleet will grow from 1,710 to 2,441.
And, remember the projections of 400 very light jets entering the market every year? These small personal jets were viewed as potentially “gnats” clogging the skies above major cities. The FAA now projects there will be 440 VLJs entering the U.S. fleet over the next three years and then just 216-a-year for the rest of the forecast period.